Jahn Research Group

Why has food system risk become a critical planning discipline for enterprises?

A decade ago, food system risk was not widely treated as a formal planning discipline. The COVID crisis exposed how highly efficient supply chains could become fragile under stress, making visible vulnerabilities that had long existed across production, logistics and infrastructure. As insurers, policymakers and industry leaders began evaluating food companies through a broader systems lens, the need for structured ways to examine interconnected risk became more apparent.

Founded by Molly Jahn, a professor and former dean at the University of Wisconsin–Madison, a former federal government appointee and previously a commercial vegetable breeder, the firm was established at the crossroads of research, public policy and commercial practice. It works with food manufacturers, processors, trade associations and state-level stakeholders to confront structural vulnerabilities embedded within the food value chain. It examines how pandemics, cyber incidents, infrastructure failures and simultaneous regional crop disruptions can converge and cascade through tightly coupled systems. Those exposures are then translated into actionable scenarios, early warning indicators and resilience planning frameworks that equip leadership teams to anticipate and navigate disruption.

“We help companies to think about plausible futures they might encounter, helping them get away from just thinking what is going to happen tomorrow,” says Jahn, CEO.

The process begins with mapping key dependencies, including critical inputs, logistics networks, energy reliability, digital infrastructure, labor availability and regulatory exposure. Leadership teams then participate in facilitated scenario sessions tailored to their business model. These discussions explore credible disruption pathways over defined time horizons and assess potential impact across functions.

How do early warning indicators improve executive decision-making before disruptions occur?

Building on those assessments, a central component of the engagement is the development of early warning indicators. Clients work with the firm to define measurable signals that suggest elevated exposure, whether related to supply concentration, infrastructure strain or cyber vulnerability. The objective is not theoretical modeling but executive clarity and preparedness.

The outcome is a shared understanding of system interdependencies, defined monitoring triggers and practical response options. These outputs support board-level discussions, capital planning, insurance negotiations and contingency strategy. For mid-sized companies in particular, the engagement creates structured time to evaluate exposure that is often overlooked amid day-to-day operational pressure.

Translating Interconnected Risk into Commercial Stability

How does systems-based risk analysis translate into financial and operational resilience?

Jahn’s credibility in this space stems from years of research into large-scale food system vulnerability. Before forming the company, she examined whether pandemic risk, cyber exposure and infrastructure concentration posed material commercial threats. Subsequent events validated those concerns, as disruptions revealed how deeply interconnected supply chains can transmit impact across markets. Cyber incidents affecting JBS and Maersk further illustrated how a single operational failure can reverberate far beyond the originating organization.

In 2015, Jahn produced the Food Systems Shocks report with Lloyd’s of London, bringing food system instability into insurance and financial risk discussions. By translating scientific analysis into language insurers and actuaries could apply, including collaboration with the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries in the UK, the work helped move food system risk into more formal financial evaluation.

That same foundation informs the firm’s applied systems approach, which examines how dependencies interact across supply chains rather than viewing disruptions in isolation. One example is the analysis of multiple breadbasket failure, in which geographically separated cereal-producing regions experience disruption within the same season. Exploring correlated production shocks enables leadership teams to better understand concentration risk and supply interdependence beyond traditional commodity analysis.

Why is food system resilience becoming a commercial expectation across industries?

It has also collaborated with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration to evaluate how improved weather forecasting translates into operational value for producers and supply networks. These engagements reinforce a consistent principle. Risk becomes more visible when dependencies are examined deliberately.

As insurers, investors and policymakers increasingly assess food systems as critical infrastructure, resilience is becoming a commercial expectation. Jahn Research Group continues to support organizations in strengthening preparedness and advancing structured approaches to food system resilience.